One of the final models used by the team was not a dynamic model made with AnyLogic. The model was developed in Microsoft Excel, by the Russian partners. The model is represented by a set of mathematical exponential and logarithmic functions. The model needed an input of basic parameters such as population density and age distribution. The functions in MS Excel, calculate the coefficients and produce a projection.
We decided to use 8 parameters for testing our econometric models for each country. So, we implement fertility rate, showing the quantity of children born by one mother; employment rate was taken as possible indicator of showing dependence of wealth and ability of getting COVID-19 disease; density is used if it is high whether it could affect as catalysator helping to evolving the epidemics; net migration rate – difference between inward coming and outwards leaving; health care index - overall quality of the health care system, including health care infrastructure; health care professionals (doctors, nursing staff, and other health workers) competencies, cost (USD per capita), quality medicine availability, and government readiness; hospital beds is important parameter whether we discuss epidemics effect and its’ ability to provide hospital care; population over 60 are considered to be mostly receptive of the coronavirus; and a total number of COVID-19 tests made in each country.
The mathematical representation of an econometric quadratic model with 2 parameters looks like this:
In order to find coefficients, we used the least squares method.
As a result we have 2 graphs, one for the real data (figure 1) and one with the Econometric model (figure 2). These factors have a significant influence on spread of COVID-19, because the final graph looks close to real data. Other tested factors have less significant influence.
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