The geometric progression works well in the initial period of the spread of the virus, but then begins to produce very high results. That is why we will try another model, which will show us more realistic results. Logistic curve, which was discussed previously, also a type of sigmoid model, but it was a very simplified version of it, that is why it does not always work properly.
Here it is clearly seen that the level of explanation becomes closer to the real data, but the model is still slightly higher than the real data.
This situation exists because we did not use any quarantine assumptions. But in Germany the government used a quarantine measure to reduce the number of infected people.
The final model is very close to Real cases, so this means that this model is reasonable and can predict the number of infected people in the future periods.
If we compare this graph with the previous one, we will see that application of quarantine measures significantly decreases the number of infected. In the previous model it was almost 400000, but here it is 200000 people. This means that quarantine has a significant effect on the number of infected.